Macau’s Gaming Revenue Forecast Revised for 2025

Investment banking firm Jefferies has adjusted its forecast for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2025, with new expectations set at MOP$240 billion, approximately US$30 billion. This represents a 2% reduction from previous estimates and aligns closely with projections by the Macau government following a slower-than-anticipated start to the year.

Key Points

• Jefferies projects a 5.8% year-on-year growth in the gaming industry.
• Policy changes, such as multi-entry visas for Zhuhai residents, are expected to boost tourism and gaming revenue.
• Major players like Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment are poised to increase market share.

Summary

The newly revised forecast suggests that the global gaming market is on a path of recovery. Jefferies anticipates a 6.9% revenue growth from March to December 2025. The firm attributes some of this optimism to newly implemented policies anticipated to enhance visitor numbers, which are expected to rebound to 94% of 2019 levels by 2025.

Opinion & Analysis

Major operators stand to benefit significantly from these forecasts. Sands China is projected to increase its market share to 25.1% by 2026, reflecting an enhanced strategic positioning. Similarly, Galaxy Entertainment is expected to raise its share to 19.3% within the same period.

Meanwhile, regional economic ties between Macau and Hong Kong are poised for growth. A recent seminar aimed at fostering investment collaboration saw business discussions ranging from shop-in-shop models to shared-use kitchens designed to reduce market entry risks.

“Hong Kong is an ideal platform for Macau enterprises to connect globally,” said Arnold Lau, Director-General of Investment Promotion at InvestHK.

These developments indicate a promising path forward for Macau’s gaming industry and broader economic relations in the region.